Tyreke Evans - Why He'll Explode in Charlotte

Tyreke Evans - Why He'll Explode in Charlotte

In an interesting move to open up trading season, GM Sun Scorched coordinated a trade with Portland that sent veterans Lou Williams and Luis Scola to Paul Allen's squad.  The player that package brought back is one often targeted as an inefficient volume scorer, but the Charlotte GM maintains there is more than initially meets the eye.  We dive into his analysis and the reasoning behind the acquisition.

Tyreke is a phenomenal talent, plain and simple.  Let's be clear up front, I understand the various objections to Tyreke as a player and I understand the additional aversion to him as a result of his contract.  The truth is, I've worked hard to put our squad in the position to be able to make these types of moves.  We have a tremendous amount of cap space available to us and we want to use that as a tool - in this case to nab an undervalued athlete playing in a system with two ball-dominant guards.

Let's dive in to the positives surrounding Tyreke.  He is one of the best rebounders at the SG position.  His ability and wherewithal to get to the line is also among the elite at his position.  He is, without a doubt, one of the best passers for the position as well.  In every one of these categories, I would only consider two or three other players as having a lead on Tyreke from a skillset standpoint.

Here is where it gets interesting.  There are plenty of advanced metrics and we have a whole crew of statisticians that work with us to develop the optimal line ups and trade or draft targets, but let's keep this simple.  What I want from my shooting guard is points.  Plain and simple, points.  Most shooting guards are rather inefficient at this, when you look at various metrics, but the one stat I focus on is points per shot attempt.  While perhaps over simplistic, in my opinion, this takes into account the three ways a shooting guard can grab points (2pt FG, 3pt FG, FTs) and allows for me to analyze that production across other shooting guards.  For example, Kobe Bryant scored 1.26 points per shot attempt ("PPSA") last season - well, how does this rank against other star shooting guards?

Rank - Player - PPSA
#1 - James Harden - 1.41
#2 - Dwayne Wade - 1.32
#3 - Kobe Bryant - 1.26
#4 - Tyreke Evans - 1.25
#5 - Kyrie Irving - 1.17
#6 - Paul George - 1.12

Other notable players: Kevin Martin (1.28), Klay Thompson (1.28), Joe Johnson (1.19), Marcus Smart (1.17), Bradley Beal (1.13)

There are obvious exclusions to this list for various reasons, but suffice it to say that Tyreke rates out favorably, despite his generally low shooting percentages, because of his ability to draw fouls.  So, in summation, it's my opinion that teams can suffer one, maybe two, inefficient scorers and survive, as long as that player can compensate in other ways - we feel that Tyreke is definitely that player and he will have the green light as soon as he touches the court in Charlotte.  Given 20 shot attempts per game, Tyreke should average 25 points, given the logic above and assuming he can hold his efficiency and draw fouls at the same rate.

Also, Tyreke is sliding into the two slot between Kendall Marshall and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, two players that sport some of the best PAS ratings at their position with 87 and 55, respectively.  And that's before our training camp.  Tyreke currently sports a PAS rating of 65 making our future 1-3 positions some of the most fluid in the game - this may mean that Kendall doesn't crack double digits this upcoming season, but the team will benefit greatly and this allows us to open up the floor and get out in transition this upcoming season.

If Tyreke can hold his level of production, we anticipate the following stat line:  25ppg, 6rpg, 5apg.  Our main focus will be limiting the turnovers that Tyreke tends to generate as a result of his relatively low HDL and, what we're assuming, his relatively high drive rate.

You can make numbers say whatever you want. Doesn't mean that Tyreke will be able to save the Bobcats at all.

Seriously though, I'm sure most of the league is watching to see if you guys will bring back Kobe Bryant and how that would work to have both of these players on the floor at the same time.

Great break down. I believe Kobe wont be in Charlotte after this season.. Jamal you got work to do! haha:D..

Ive to say I like Tyreke. He's really an allrounder, but his handling should/could be a problem.
On top his contract is really heavy. Anyway you still got enough capspace to build a great team around Marshall, Evans, MKG.

Gotta find a guy to spread the floor, those stats aren't showing the "why" as to why he scored at that clip, just the result and the why was Lillard's offensive ability to score from downtown (1.7 3pg) and from the field (.526 %) along with Aldridge and Harris. He also benefitted from their defense.
You definitely have the defense part of your team down but Kobe was your floor spacer etc hitting 2 3pg, if you can get a shooter (I suggested a couple to you and I'm sure you have some others targeted as well) Reke should be really good in Charlotte.
Kobe is gonna be a vital part of someone's team whether it be in Charlotte or not remains to be seen.
Great article man.

Great article - Tyreke will have some great games for you for sure. I agree, he is one of the best all-around players in the league.

I think bringing back Kobe is key though. No way I would let him go at this stage - he brings can bring so much to this team

With Reke and MKG that's two guys that can't shoot, which is the only thing that makes me doubtful.

And better than PPS is TS%. Reke had a very unspectacular TS% (53.6%), but it's not horrible. However, you then you have to consider that this doesn't factor in TO per game. He averaged 3.4 TOs in just 28mpg (4.4 TOs per36), and is 6th among all starting guards in TO% (the other five are all PGs).

Other stats include 8th in TO per game (again, despite playing just 28mpg), and 8th in USG%, behind guys who are all top scorers in the league.

IMO all of these problems stem from his insane drive rate. For some reason POR or DAL beefed up his drive rate like crazy (looks like around 90% to me), which makes him pretty useless against good defenses (if you look at his game logs, he'll dominate bad defensive teams but struggle mightily against good ones).

So because of his increased USG%, he put up good raw numbers, which made him an All-Star and gain some recognition. The EXACT same thing happened to Jeremy Lin. These guys just saw a huge spike in their USG% with their high drive rates, and it led to good raw stats (which people are usually enamored by). Delve a little deeper into their advanced stats though, and you'll see that they weren't playing good basketball.

So basically, while the increased drive rate has reduced Reke's jumpshot and 3-point attempts (which is where he struggles), it's turned him into one of the most high-USG% players in the league on very weak efficiency.

What should instead be done is to work his drive rate down to regular levels, and instead make him post up more instead of shooting jumpers or threes.

He's really big for his position at 219 lbs, and looks to be a decent scorer inside. Ratings-wise he's not bad, so doing this will make him a MUCH more effective player IMO, even if his raw stats won't be as pretty.

Love when OP breaks it down like that. I learn something every time.

orangeparka (MIA) wrote:

(if you look at his game logs, he'll dominate bad defensive teams but struggle mightily against good ones).

Hmm some of Tyreke's performances against good D teams. All with decent shooting%
Clippers 29p
Rockets 32p
Clippers 26p
Thunder 31p
Thunder 36p
Nuggets 31p
Nuggets 24p
Jazz 34p
Nuggets 25p
etc

andrei (POR) wrote:

orangeparka (MIA) wrote:

(if you look at his game logs, he'll dominate bad defensive teams but struggle mightily against good ones).

Hmm some of Tyreke's performances against good D teams. All with decent shooting%
Clippers 29p
Rockets 32p
Clippers 26p
Thunder 31p
Thunder 36p
Nuggets 31p
Nuggets 24p
Jazz 34p
Nuggets 25p
etc

Yeah I thought he played pretty good which could be attributed to Lillard Aldridge Tobias as stated earlier. I know firsthand what he's capable of from regular season to Playoffs. Not sure he can do with Charlotte's current roster or even as a starter but he'll have to if they lose Kobe.

I do thoroughly respect the Hornets win mentality of their organization, really refreshing to see in a sim League where the norm is to pawn high salaries on other teams and stockpile draft picks and stay in rebuild mode constantly.

andrei (POR) wrote:

orangeparka (MIA) wrote:

(if you look at his game logs, he'll dominate bad defensive teams but struggle mightily against good ones).

Hmm some of Tyreke's performances against good D teams. All with decent shooting%
Clippers 29p
Rockets 32p
Clippers 26p
Thunder 31p
Thunder 36p
Nuggets 31p
Nuggets 24p
Jazz 34p
Nuggets 25p
etc

Hmmm I'll have to check it out. I'm more concerned with individual defenders with high STP%, as well as good zone defenses over just good defenses in general.

And BTW, same goes for Lin and Kyrie too. They're both very talented and lessening their drives would make them much more efficient and lower their USG%, thus making them play more like PGs.

I know Tyreke seems like a step backward, but take a look at my ECF team and this one, so far:

ECF Team
PG - Marshall / Williams
SG - Bryant / Lee
SF - Kidd-Gilchrist / Azubuike
PF - Scola / Sullinger
C - Haywood / Okur

Current Team
PG - Marshall
SG - Evans
SF - Kidd-Gilchrist / Azubuike
PF - Sullinger
C - Asik / Haywood

So essentially, we've bulked up our frontcourt and added Evans, potentially in place of Kobe. Thing is, I'd like to keep Kobe, but he's not great from distance either and his skillset is already on the decline. I've included his previous ratings, followed by his current ratings, followed by his projected rating next season (assuming the declination rate doesn't accelerate).

SCR - 84 -79 - 74
PAS - 61 - 57 - 53
HDL - 53 - 50 - 47
DEF - 75 - 71 - 67

So yeah, I can potentially have $26 million to spend in free agency and I'm not sure the direction I'm taking at this point, other than emphasizing the focus on some guys who can hit from range.

I don't think anyone can say it's a step backwards. You didn't really give up anything lol.

I love what you've done this off-season. Definitely prepared for another run.

Dylan (SAC) wrote:I love what you've done this off-season. Definitely prepared for another run.

I certainly don't see another run coming as long as this GM is at the helm. Last season was a fluke.

Both Marshall and MKG will be getting some serious pref work done this next season - excited about that. I think both can be VERY efficient secondary scorers.