10 wins/6-7/Oden Down

How Will Suns React To Loss Of Defensive Anchor?

Phoenix Suns head coach Nate McMillan and his team will have to figure out how to fare without Greg Oden for the next two months

The wins were coming. A 5-7 record has the Phoenix Suns close to the .500 mark since their series of swaps, right on target for what the front office hoped to promote to free agents in the upcoming offseason. In particular, they were 5-2 at home, an encouraging sign for a squad carrying a 3-10 record on their own home court prior to the massive makeover. But then, a mere two minutes into a road game on Boston, the hearts of Suns fans everywhere shattered when starting center Greg Oden, the team's defensive rock, hit the floor screaming and clutching his elbow. Diagnosis: Broken elbow - Out 63 days.

This after the recent signs of turnaround, including the most recent 128-112 win over a strong Portland Trailblazers team who'd won 14 straight. In that brilliant triumph, the Suns were in control for virtually the entire game, with the Blazers never leading, and Phoenix up by as much as 18 at one point. J.J. Redick took home Player of the Game honors in that one, torching Portland for 30 points, 7 assists and a steal - a season high by far for a player who'd yet to break the 20 point barrier. But Kendall Marshall was equally brilliant - 20 points, 12 assists and an assist against 3 steals, and Mitch McGary netted yet another double-double, this one for 16 points, 11 rebounds, 2 steals and a block. All 5 starters scored in double-digits, and Jared Sullinger once again stepped up off the bench, scoring 12 points with 4 rebounds.

It was the kind of fearsome, powerful display that showed the Suns are on their way to becoming a West power once they find the solution to their SG and turnover generating issues. But then came this Oden injury, taking out a player who the front office valued so highly, they refused to even listen to offers to make the trade a three way. And they've still continued to reject any proposals for the 26 year old injury-prone big man.

So how did the Suns respond, on the road where they've won just one game all season, and now were without their best defensive player?


Jared Sullinger was once again magical with the basketball

Two words: Jared Sullinger. Flash back to the December 23rd game against the Oklahoma City Thunder, where he started against the far more celebrated Dwight Howard, also as a result of an Oden injury. End result? 34 points, 11 rebounds on 13/19 shooting. Although the Suns lost by 13 due a 14 point 4th quarter deficit that cost them the game, it was nonetheless a breakout performance that drew ESPN highlights. Last night against the Celtics? Try 28 points, 12 rebounds, and 3 steals, shooting 13 of 18 and winning Player of the Game.

Other Suns standouts - Kendall Marshall again with 25 points, 8 assists, 5 rebounds and a steal with just a single turnover. Otto Porter with a sterling 50% from the floor and the 3 point line night for a 19 point, 13 rebound double-double. And of course, Phoenix's most consistent double-double machine, Mitch McGary getting it done for the 6th time in the last 7 games, this one clocking in at 16 points, 11 rebounds and a block.

Despite another fourth quarter collapse that forced OT, the Suns rallied in the extra period to put away the Celtics 122-113, ending an epic game that saw 30 lead changes and 12 ties over the course of its marathon session - a victory that pushed Phoenix to the 10 win mark and also moved them ahead of Memphis in the league standings, and right on the tail of the Orlando Magic as their next object of conquest.

But who will replace Sullinger as Phoenix's primary backup big?


Darrell Arthur will likely get first crack at the job

Word out of the desert is that Darrell Arthur, a 26 year old forward the front office quite likes, will be the first one to get an opportunity to show that he belongs with meaningful minutes. Although his advanced stats look terrible defensively, he's only been in a game for more than 5 minutes once this season, and has only appeared in 8 games, so there's very much a small sample size in effect. Last season, he played in 28 games and started 13 games, putting up 4.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 0.7 steals and 0.6 blocks, shooting 43.3% in 16.1 minutes a game. However, it should be noted that last year, the Suns were not running a Jestorball system, and nor did they have the players to do so. Arthur is also the best all-around rebounder and defender of the candidates available, and has a lower scoring drive than anyone save for Royce White.

Speaking of, White, 22, has been a solid 3 point threat, and the Suns love his passing and ball security. But he's been an absolute train wreck in stopping drives (17.1%) and he doesn't have a good enough PA/SF or TOFC rate to make up for his glaring flaws.

There are those who vouch for #3 overall pick Anthony Bennett taking on a hybrid forward role, but AB15 is still struggling with his shot due to taking too many jumpers, where he hits just 28.7%. Playing the 4 in Phoenix's new Double Post system since the trades would help that issue by forcing the UNLV star to take more shots inside, but his high scoring instincts relative to the rest of the contenders means the wins-oriented Suns aren't going to have him that opportunity. Offensive efficiency is critical for how the Suns operate, and until he develops and grows his shooting form, Bennett is too much of a liability. He also has no rebounding ability right now.

Donatas Motiejunas has a fair number of fans around the league, and a couple of teams have tried to get him. He's the best shotblocker of the prospects and has some genuine potential to become a solid shooter once he works out the kinks, and at 7', 224, has the size to add intimidation. But the Suns' front office simply doesn't trust him enough to give him an extended run just yet, although sources say he's probably #2 on the list right now behind Arthur.

Then there's veteran stretch for Mirza Teletovic, who also has some fans CSL-wide. But we all know of Jestorball's hatred of stretch fours, so he isn't even under consideration.

Greg Oden is hurt? I can't say I'm surprised.

But you've definitely made the most of the guys you have. You're a .500 team now, but without your pick, I guess you'll be trying to land a big name free agent again?

Well, we still have the Spurs, Bulls, and Lakers picks in this draft, and San Antonio looks lottery-bound.

Assuming I renounce Arthur, Udrih, Gentile, Teletovic and Motiejunas.. that's 5 guys off the roster. We're absolutely picking up Oden's TO.

So 5 guys, 4 draft picks, one of which is a second rounder we'll probably cut without signing. We'll have 1 or 2 roster spots to chase a big FA, yes. And we should be able to have a .500 record or thereabouts to show (winning would be even better, but much tougher now after losing Oden for two months) potential FAs that we're already a playoff potential team next year.

Plus, this offseason is the time for us to do it. Oden, Marshall, and Sully are all due to be re-signed the offseason after that, and then I have to get Porter and McGary locked up long-term the year after that. So really, this year and maybe next, depending on how patient the PAs are willing to be, are the only two times we'll have huge amounts of cap available.

Though loss for sure.. At least he'll be back in uniform at some point of the season, even if you have to limit his minutes to avoid other injuries..

Jestorball is a very nice system. I'm trying to learn the most I can from each system you guys explain so I can add something to create my own.
And I did not know Kendall Marshall would look that amazing in a system that benefits floor generals.

Oh, I knew Marshall was going to be close to a double-double point guard for me. What I didn't expect was for him to blow up in scoring the way he has - In 13 games, he's had 5 games with 20+ points and 1 game with 30+ points. While the point guard is the most critical position in my system, I thought Marshall's 54 scoring rating was going to make him more of an 11/8 or 9 guy rather than a 14.5/8.8 one.

The turnaround in Phoenix is impressive but the loss of Oden has got to sting. I'm sure you'll find a way to weather the storm.