Pathways To The Playoffs: East Edition

Examining The East Lottery Teams' Entry To Extra Games
Note: Since images are still blocked until I've been here a week, you'll have to settle for a wall of text.

Atlantic Division
Philadelphia 76ers - 42-40
Just missed out on the playoffs last season and clearly rides as far as Andrew Bynum and Dwayne Wade will carry them. Luol Deng and Ersan Illyasova are solid complementary pieces to the Bynum/Wade show, but when your best point guard option is Ramon Sessions, you know you're in trouble. Obviously the first and most important need is to get a true point guard in there. No draft pick and insufficient cap space makes acquiring a worthy point guard only possible via trade - likely through dealing their frontcourt depth, which means either Illyasova or Jordan Williams, as those are the most attractive pieces capable of landing a floor general. The roster is aging, so the move needs to be made now, rather than play out the thread of their 30+ year old core players. Either that, or blow up and rebuild around Bynum and Williams.

Brooklyn Nets - 33-49
It seems like we have this conversation every year about how the Nets underachieve relative to their talent. I mean, they have Brook Lopez, Joe Johnson and Rajon Rondo, and they're doing this poorly still despite that quality Big Three? Granted, Lopez was hurt most of the year with a broken foot, but still... The biggest issue is a complete lack of rebounding, and that has to be the first priority the Nets address, possibly through trading James McAdoo, or, far more likely, using their MLE and LLE to target rebounding specialists. That, a healthy Lopez, and an active GM should be good enough to see them into the playoffs next year.

Boston Celtics - 26-56
The ugly rebuild is officially starting, with the Cs holding #2, #6 and Patric Young as shiny new pieces to be injected into the roster. They've got Dennis Schroeder at the point, but he's still extremely raw, and there's questions as to if he'll ever have the handling ability needed to become a legitimate worthy starter at the point. Landry Fields is not a bad wing piece, but overall, this roster is quite lacking in talent. Indeed, their best player now that they've dealt Vucevic is probably Amir Johnson, who at 27 and with the Celtics on the start of a long, tough rebuild, should most likely be traded for more future assets. Unlike the 76ers and Nets, who are close to getting back into the playoffs with the right move and luck, the Cs are at least 3 years away from entering the playoff conversation.

Central
Milwaukee Bucks - 18-64
The lone Central team not to make the playoffs, the Bucks are in the midst of a controversial trade that will see Kenneth "The Manimal" Faried, O.J. Mayo and #4 go out for Kyle Anderson and Nikola Pekovic. In terms of pure talent, it's a fairly massive overpay for the Bucks. While brimming with potential, Anderson had terrible shooting numbers his rookie season, couldn't stop a drive at all, and in general looked nothing like a player worthy of that pricey package. Pekovic is a quality player, but he's 28 and on an expensive contract, which makes no sense for a rebuilding team like Milwaukee. If it were a simple Mayo/Faried for Anderson/Pekovic swap, then it would make sense for both parties (see more below). But the #4 pick on top of it? That's frankly rapey, and demonstrates why GMs like Atlanta and Miami are able to get away with making the offers they're sometimes prone to doing - because there will be GMs who don't think things through and accept them.

Looking over the rest of Milwaukee's roster, it's quite clear to see why shooting percentages for the team hit the tank - there is not one single point guard here who is worthy of anything more than backup status, which makes this trade somewhat more logical from the Bucks' standpoint - they're clearly planning on using Anderson as a point forward. That may work if he can reach his potentials, but unless he can improve on that 33% jumper, it's not going to be a viable long-term option on a championship contending side. The best player still remaining is obviously Marc Gasol, who is an elite-level big man with a bad shooting year due to the scrub point guard situation. Will he stay or will he go? That's tough to say - Milwaukee has backed themselves into a bit of a corner here with this trade and they're headed directly towards the muddy swamp of mediocrity - too good to get a quality pick, too bad to contend for the playoffs. That said, they're one of the teams flush with free agency cash, and with the projected lineup right now of:

PG Anderson
SG
SF Gallinari
PF Pekovic
CE Gasol

They have the space available to fill in the missing backcourt hole, whether that's at SG or whether that's finding a natural PG and shifting Anderson to the 2. Then you have the sort of lineup in place that can certainly fight for a playoff spot next season, but that's going to depend on Anderson making major strides in his sophomore season, and hitting on the right free agent in order to pull it off. And, as the Nets demonstrated this year, health, obviously, though there should be enough cap left over after the FA splash for Milwaukee to find depth.

Southeast
Atlanta Hawks - 39-43
I hate Josh Smith, so I'm going to hate that trade for Atlanta. He's your classic tweener who never lives up to the billing that makes scouts rave about him. Furthermore, although they clearly won that deal with Milwaukee as outlined above, in Smith, Faried, and Mayo, they're going to have a very short, small lineup that's going to get bullied by taller, bigger, and stronger teams. Much like the Bucks, the team suffered from a total lack of point guards, most dramatically signaled by Mitch McGary's crash in shooting upon arriving in Atlanta, and Greg Monroe's continued struggles in the paint. Trey Burke appears to be a combo guard in the making, without the passing talents needed to run the offense, which is no doubt why the Hawks are reportedly targeting Andrew Harrison with the 4th overall pick they just received - you know, the same point guard Milwaukee needs so very, very much? In perfect honesty, I have to say that the smallball the Hawks are apparently going to fly with is such anathema to Jestorball that I can only say we'll have to wait and see how it all plays out. Doubtless though, that Atlanta will find a way to fill that point guard hole via trade and make their team much stronger as a result.

Washington Wizards - 35-47
So they have a point guard in John Wall, a stud young franchise big in Blake Griffin, and another developing young big in Jonas Valanciunas. So why is Washington doing this poorly? They have a lot of talent and depth on this roster, so the poor showing is initially confusing, until you see that Wall missed 31 games last year due to injury (similar to Lopez), and only Griffin started more than 66 games last year. That's the kind of lack of continuity and cohesion that kills a team - no chance of creating chemistry. So the on-paper talent is there; it's just a matter of the new GM finding a lineup and strategy he likes, and sticking with it. Just based on pure on-paper talent alone, the Wizards should be back in the playoff fight next season, and that's without counting whoever they find at #11 to help the cause.

Orlando Magic - 11-71
Let's be perfectly honest - This is going to be all about watching the Giannis, Nerlens Noel, and Andrew Wiggins Show grow and develop over the next few seasons. Once that Big Three blossoms, good times will be had in the Magic Kingdom. They're also, with the exception of Scott Skiles, still running a Jestor-picked coaching staff, which bodes well for the development of those three. They do need a point guard to go with them though, as Shane Larkin's ability to develop into a capable floor general is uncertain, with different scouts holding wildly varying opinions. It's a beautiful trio to build on, though, and once that point guard is found, whether it turns out to be Larkin or somebody else, they're in good shape. They may be able to make some free agency noise this offseason, but will probably wait until next year, when they'll *really* have the cap to make some noise. That said, we're probably looking at 3-5 years before we see the Magic as a serious playoff threat. It's all about the patient development.

wow - great article

Definitely believe Philly should have been in the playoffs. I think they started the season really well but then lost it and were out. Don't think this will happen this season though as Bynum and Wade are just too good to be on a lottery team

ATL started the season as the main MIA rival in the east with Carmelo and Sanders and Batum but finished with a complete rebuild. Somewhat disappointing season for them so this should be a come back year

BRK and WAS are teams on the rise and are too good to be in the lottery for long. Celtics, MIL and ORL seem to be far from contending but they have strong GMs so we'll see what these guys come up with

Have to say I like Schröder and as soon as he reached his potentials he will be a great pass first pointguard with tough defense. Ive to say I like him way more compared to a guy like Walker (FG%) or Marshall (Defense). This year is going to be a developement year, no question. Next season I believe we are able to get something done, having two more tc for developement and 30 Million capspace should enable us to Fight for #8

Great read.

2014 Playoff Eastern Conference Teams:

1. Miami Heat vs. 8. Toronto Raptors
2. Indiana Pacers vs. 7. Charlotte Bobcats
3. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. 6. Detroit Pistons
4. New York Knicks vs. 5. Chicago Bulls

As is the Raptors may be the only team to not make the Playoffs so who out of all the teams listed can really truly vie for a Playoff spot?

Philly or BK, no disrespect but don't see Washington making it with such a tight-fisted GM unless things change so I really foresee a long season for those same teams before they start to hit their stride.

2 horse race.

DennisJ (BOS) wrote:Have to say I like Schröder and as soon as he reached his potentials he will be a great pass first pointguard with tough defense. Ive to say I like him way more compared to a guy like Walker (FG%) or Marshall (Defense). This year is going to be a developement year, no question. Next season I believe we are able to get something done, having two more tc for developement and 30 Million capspace should enable us to Fight for #8

Great read.

Walker - 39.5%/35.7% 3 point range (and his numbers went up after coming to Phoenix)
Schroeder - 40.5%/21.2% 3 point range (and his numbers went down after going to Boston)

So yeah I'm not sure where the argument for Schroeder over Walker in terms of shooting is coming from. Kemba's 3 point shooting actually makes him a much more efficient shooter at this point. We'll see how he goes, though. One thing I have noticed - DDS 2 slightly favored handling over passing, in that you could have a quality team without a strong passing point guard as long as he had handles. DDS 3 very much favors passing over handling, to the point that it's killed two teams' shooting averages as we saw in this writeup.

If Milwaukee hits on the right guard, I can see them in the playoff conversation next season. In fact, they kind of have to - otherwise this trade makes no sense for them with #4 being included.

Good read. KA played a lot of SG so that explains his stop-drive. IMO, he'll be fine on that, and he was just a rookie so expecting his shooting to improve isn't crazy.

I love Schroeder, liked him since I scouted him last season. He'll be fine, he won't be any worse than Rondo scoring the ball IMO.

Jestor wrote:That's frankly rapey, and demonstrates why GMs like Atlanta and Miami are able to get away with making the offers they're sometimes prone to doing - because there will be GMs who don't think things through and accept them.  

I don't get this though. When has MIA ever made a one-sided trade? Or sent you a bad offer?

Our roster's full of undervalued/underappreciated guys with little name value. I barely had much to work with outside of my top asset in KD (which is unmovable), so I could only build a team through little trades.

Dunno where that stuff's coming from.

Jestor wrote:

DennisJ (BOS) wrote:Have to say I like Schröder and as soon as he reached his potentials he will be a great pass first pointguard with tough defense. Ive to say I like him way more compared to a guy like Walker (FG%) or Marshall (Defense). This year is going to be a developement year, no question. Next season I believe we are able to get something done, having two more tc for developement and 30 Million capspace should enable us to Fight for #8

Great read.

Walker - 39.5%/35.7% 3 point range (and his numbers went up after coming to Phoenix)
Schroeder - 40.5%/21.2% 3 point range (and his numbers went down after going to Boston)

So yeah I'm not sure where the argument for Schroeder over Walker in terms of shooting is coming from.  Kemba's 3 point shooting actually makes him a much more efficient shooter at this point.  We'll see how he goes, though.  One thing I have noticed - DDS 2 slightly favored handling over passing, in that you could have a quality team without a strong passing point guard as long as he had handles.  DDS 3 very much favors passing over handling, to the point that it's killed two teams' shooting averages as we saw in this writeup.

Like you said Schröder is still pretty raw. Kemba's % wasnt as good as it is now when he came into the league. Also I didnt say Schröder is the better shooter! Kemba shoots 40% on above 20 attempts, Schröder is shooting less on ~8 attempts. Maybe used the wrong word. Should have used Efficiency istead of FG%. My Bad!

Also I dont get your Handling opinion. Schroders potentials in Handling are above kembas or rondos handling potentials. At least thats what I see ingame.

Ps: thanks for the dds2 advice. Still learning the Basics for dds2, thats why Im so quite in the NLL.. lol

About Miami and Atlanta:
First: dont know why you got that opinion about OP. Received a lot offers by him and he never sent a bad one. To be honest they are always fair.

Second: BI sometimes starts with an offer that looks lopsided, but he's always open to negotiate. It isnt BIs fault if a GM pulls the trigger to fast. Also it isnt his fault if another GM doesnt try to negotiate.. If you always just did see BIs entry offer it could look lopsided..

Great article. Orlando is going to have one of the most athletic, defensive trios in the league in a couple seasons with Giannis, Wiggins and Noel. Scary. Philly should be back to top-4 in the conference this year assuming healthy. Don't doubt BI, he will find someone to fill his PG void. No mention for the Bobcats? Perfect!

Haha - under the radar, just how I like it.

But seriously, we have some work to do to make MIA break a sweat.

I only listed the lottery teams from last season, ergo the article's title.

DennisJ (BOS) wrote:

Also I dont get your Handling opinion. Schroders potentials in Handling are above kembas or rondos handling potentials. At least thats what I see ingame.
..

I see 67 handling potential for Schroeder

Good article, I think most of the analysis is fairly spot on as well. If Wiggins is as advertised, Orlando could be looking at a much quicker rebuild than 3 years though - DDS loves teams with a player who is just flat out dominant.

Jestor wrote:I only listed the lottery teams from last season, ergo the article's title.

Ahh, context clues are my worst enemy.   

I think that Philly, Brooklyn, Atlanta and Washington are the only teams here who have the potential to make the playoffs next season, but all of them will need a lot of certain things to go their way for that to happen. Brooklyn and Washington are both fighting health, Atlanta is fighting continuity, and Philly is battling depth and lack of a point guard.

Interesting read and agree, those teams most likely are coming for my playoff spot as I'm still unsure which way we will be going and if Jefferson will be around when the season starts.

You would think Philly are the team. They fell away drastically last season but were up there to begin. The talent is there.

If D-Wade didn't go out for the season they would've been a top 4 seed at worst. They were hovering at 2/3 the whole season IIRC.

Ya, it seems like we still have a lot of work to do in Orlando. Great article and I hope that somehow I figure out a way to make us more than the cellar dwellers we have been.

Jestor wrote:Brooklyn Nets - 33-49
It seems like we have this conversation every year about how the Nets underachieve relative to their talent.  I mean, they have Brook Lopez, Joe Johnson and Rajon Rondo, and they're doing this poorly still despite that quality Big Three? Granted, Lopez was hurt most of the year with a broken foot, but still... The biggest issue is a complete lack of rebounding, and that has to be the first priority the Nets address, possibly through trading James McAdoo, or, far more likely, using their MLE and LLE to target rebounding specialists.  That, a healthy Lopez, and an active GM should be good enough to see them into the playoffs next year.

You've defined our team very well. Besides the lack of rebounding, I think we need to score more points. The IQ of JJ and Rondo are good, so we will try to play with a faster pace this year.

Jestor wrote:

DennisJ (BOS) wrote:

Also I dont get your Handling opinion. Schroders potentials in Handling are above kembas or rondos handling potentials. At least thats what I see ingame.
..

I see 67 handling potential for Schroeder

For me its 72..
So its the same like rondo and only 2 points less compared to Walker..
anyway, just like said a great article!

Greal read and fantastic article. I still study all teams in east and west conference. After i will said my list of favorites in both conference? Need a time