The Marshall Plan Returns

Controversial Trade Will Completely Transform Suns

Kendall Marshall is finally back in the desert

The blogosphere immediately raised its incredulity at the shocking trade that hit the newswire. "God awful value for Phoenix". "Great deal for Charlotte." "Two average players and a late first for a potential franchise player? Really? Really?" and so on, with aspersions being hammered left, right, and every which way on Suns GM Jestor in the blockbuster deal between the Suns and the Charlotte Hornets.

In total, the swap sends Colton Iverson and Phoenix's unprotected first this year to the Hornets for Kendall Marshall, Jared Sullinger, and the Chicago Bulls' first this season. And indeed, from a pure valuation standpoint of a current projected Top 5 pick, this would appear to be a horrific trade for the desert-dwellers, one more than worthy of the lambasting Phoenix's front office has initially received.

But a deeper look says that there may be genuine, artistic method to this seeming madness from a 3-21 team. Some commentators have speculated Jestor despises this year's draft class, and numerous observers have said that the return of Marshall is one of the best cases of system fit in the league. To gain a fuller understanding of why this trade occurred, we need to go back to the GM's first stint in Phoenix.

When he arrived halfway through the first season, Jestor declared the-then rookie Kendall Marshall as untouchable, for he saw the Tarheel alum as precisely the sort of tall, elite floor general point guard he wanted to hand the keys to his offense to and create a winning franchise around. Indeed, Marshall was the only player declared non-negotiable of that initial team. In that first season, Marshall shot 44.7%/30.4% from 3 point range, finishing with 7.5 points, 5.7 assists, and 0.8 steals a game, posting a 1.8 A/TO ratio as a raw rookie who split his starts between point guard and shooting guard, the latter occurring after one of Jestor's first trades brought Brandon Jennings, ironically also from Charlotte, to inject new life and excitement into the Suns, which it did.

Then came the GM's departure due to other commitments and the new regime traded Marshall, Luis Scola, and Louis Williams to yes, Charlotte, for Kemba Walker and David West, a deal that smacked in the face of everything that Jestorball stood for. All was not lost, though, for immediately upon his return to Phoenix this past offseason, Jestor turned around and moved Walker and the Utah Jazz 2015 1st round pick to the Atlanta Hawks for prized young big man Mitch McGary and the San Antonio Spurs' 2015 1st. Walker then got dealt again, this time with Josh Smith to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Kyle Lowry and Roy Hibbert.

But to return back to Marshall, in the two half-seasons he's been away, he's blossomed into precisely the elite floor general his former and now new again GM predicted. While his 8.4 point and 5.5 assist line, shooting 44.2% and 30.4% from downtown, does not immediately stand out, his A/TO ratio is up to 4.5, and he's putting up those numbers in 23.6 minutes a game. He's been knocked for his defense, and indeed, his 54.5% drive stop rate is bad, but he also boasts an impressive 0.8 PA/SF, and his drop from 0.8 to 0.2 steals from rookie year to now is likely attributable to the Hornets' defensive tactics, rather than any inability on Marshall's own part. Indeed, scouts say his stealing ability ranks only second to Otto Porter on the Suns. He's also just 22 years old, which makes him one of Phoenix's young guns.

Keep in mind that while the Suns are just 3-21 at the moment, they have done so with the strictly backup Beno Udrih as the starting point guard, whose own 3.8 A/TO ratio has been inflated by his handles and his playing time (35.6 MPG, or 12 minutes more than Marshall). Yet, the shifts do not end there. First, though, we'll give a look to the other players coming in.


On the bench is where Shelden Williams will stay for the rest of the season

Least important is 31 year power forward Shelden Williams, whose horrific sub-40% shooting and 1.1 PA/SF ratio guarantee he won't be seeing any time. The reason his late-minute addition in exchange for Colton Iverson was accepted by Phoenix was due to the fact that he's an expiring, and the Suns shave off Iverson's $800k salary next year as a result. He'll sit on the inactive list and stay there, given the Suns' plethora of other forward options.


Can Jared Sullinger point his way to a starting spot in the lineup?

Like Marshall, Jared Sullinger is 22 years old, and while he doesn't have the guaranteed tailored for Jestorball stamp that his point guard counterpoint does, the Ohio State product is nonetheless shooting 88.5% from inside. Obviously, that's a very small sample size (1.4 FGA inside), but he's generated 4.7 points out of that efficiency in just 13.4 minutes a game, and perhaps more importantly, he instantly becomes the Suns' top defensive rebounder. Whether that translates into a starting spot or not remains to be seen - Phoenix is also high on Kelly Olynyk's potential in a system transformation (More on that later) - but he looks to be someone who could do better than expected in the newly imagined setup.

The Starting Lineup Effect

Anthony Bennett is one of two players who will see his position shift as a result of the trade

One of the most dramatic changes the trade will result in is a complete shakeup of the rotation. Previously, it looked like this:

PG Beno Udrih
SG Kendall Williams (PG/SG)
SF Otto Porter
PF Anthony Bennett
CE Mitch McGary
Alessandro Gentile (SG)
Royce White (SF)
Kelly Olynk (PF)
Kendrick Perkins (CE)

Now it projects to look like this, tentatively speaking:

PG Kendall Marshall
SG Otto Porter
SF Anthony Bennett
PF Jared Sullinger
CE Mitch McGary
Beno Udrih (PG)
Kendall Williams (PG/SG)
Kelly Olynk (PF/CE)
Royce White (SF)
Kendrick Perkins (CE)

Dropped from the rotation is struggling 2nd round rookie Alessandro Gentile, and the Suns now have much more flexibility in regards to how they handle the backup minutes at PG. Also, the shift of Otto Porter and Anthony Bennett down a spot will allow Phoenix the ability to create size mismatches at the 2 and create a much bigger, longer lineup overall. How much taller and larger? Let's take a look:

Old
PG - 6'3, 205
SG - 6'3, 185
SF - 6'9, 198
PF - 6'7, 237
CE 6'10, 263

New
PG - 6'4, 197
SG - 6'9, 198
SF - 6'7, 237
PF - 6'9, 258
CE - 6'10, 263

That's a much taller and bigger lineup, more in keeping with Jestorball, and one that's able to play a more physical, tougher defensive style of play. Marshall and Porter individually and together are both significant, if not major defensive upgrades over the old backcourt of Udrih and Williams, and the smaller opponents he'll face should help Bennett improve his own defensive numbers. As for Sullinger, in both size and ability he'll be fair upgrades over Bennett in the post. While no one imagines the 108.3 points allowed (26th) Suns will suddenly be the Los Angeles Clippers or the Utah Jazz, there should be a considerable improvement in the number over the rest of the season.

The System Changes

Kelly Olynyk will see his shooting accuracy explode with the transformations

Contrary to every single Jestorball rule ever established, the Phoenix Suns have run the Single Post exclusively this season, to experiment with how Anthony Bennett would work as that horror of all Suns horrors, the stretch 4. Obviously, the project proved a complete failure, leading to a team-wide 42.8% shooting (26th in the league) and just 89.8 points a game (28th). Remember how Brandon Jennings completely transformed Phoenix's offense when he arrived? The insertion of Kendall Marshall into the lineup and all of these other shiftings will have the same effect.

Most significantly, Phoenix will now switch from the despised Single Post to either the Standard or the Double Post, as more fitting of the Jestorball system, and if Anthony Bennett makes a dramatic leap in his shooting percentages, the Suns may contemplate switching to the beloved Isolation offense that turned another Jestor-run Suns team into an unexpected powerhouse. Either way, it will result in players like Kelly Olynyk, who shot just 37.4% as the backup PF in the Single Post, sending their shooting into the stratosphere between the first third of the season to the latter two thirds.

How The Pick Will Pan Out

Otto Porter's two-way game will have much to say about how the Suns pan out

On the face of it, the Phoenix Suns appear to have given away a Top 5 pick for Marshall, Sullinger, and the late first of the Bulls. (Colton Iverson played so little despite being liked by the coaching staff that his departure's impact is negligible at best). But a closer examination of the standings reveals otherwise might be the case:

Non-Playoff Teams
---------------------
1. Minnesota Timberwolves - 13-11
2. Denver Nuggets - 13-12
3. San Antonio Spurs - 10-12
4. Cleveland Cavaliers - 10-13
5. Brooklyn Nets - 10-14
6. Philadelphia 76ers - 9-13
7. Dallas Mavericks - 7-12
8. Milwaukee Bucks - 9-16
9. Memphis Grizzlies - 6-16
10. Orlando Magic - 6-18
11. Boston Celtics - 4-18
12. Phoenix Suns - 3-21
13. Toronto Raptors - 2-21
14. Sacramento Kings - 2-21

The state of the league is such that even with that paltry 3-21 record, the Suns still rank 12th out of 14 teams, and with the expected improvements from this deal, they can very easily and in short order pass up several of the teams ahead of them and potentially take this selection from a Top 5 lock to a Top 10 one. While much needs to go right for that to happen, primarily Kendall Marshall, Otto Porter, and Mitch McGary all staying healthy, in addition to the changes being the correct ones, there is ample opportunity to devalue the precious first they've surrendered.

And that's without considering other trades Phoenix might make with the Spurs, Lakers, and Bulls firsts they have on hand - pieces they could very well trade out along with their passels of 2nds to strengthen the depth and power of the squad and thereby make themselves more injury-resistant.

Consider also, those who decry this deal based on the losing nature of the Suns when Marshall was here earlier, both a full season and during Porter's rookie season's first half - Porter was injured for much of that time, and in both cases, Phoenix was completely absent the type of Jestorball-powerhouse big man the Suns now have in Mitch McGary. In short, this is a much better, far more dangerous team than at any point in the previous two and a half seasons. But again, health will be critical.

In any case, no matter what the results, this will go down as the most daring trade of Jestor's career.

If you didn't leave the league in the first place, you wouldn't have had to move this year's first round pick.   

True, but then I also wouldn't have McGary, and he's one of the two biggest keys to my team.

I tend to think that it doesn't matter how much you pay for the pieces, but if you get what you need.

You've got a more than proven system that works (which is a lot), and you just got a piece that perfectly fits that system in Marshall.
I could see an instant performance change with the roster position shake up you announce, and even more if you add more pieces with those 1st rounders you have.
It won't be easy converting the pick in a non top10, but I've seen your Suns do much more difficult things.

Great read!

After reading this article I don't think this trade was as bad as when I originally read it.  Youre not gonna become a playoff team because you're too far behind, but if you can get that Lotto pick in the 10-14 range then it was worth it hands down.  You have a very young viable starting lineup now and with the Bulls and Spurs pick you will have a very good team next season as well.

emplep7 (DET) wrote:After reading this article I don't think this trade was as bad as when I originally read it.  Youre not gonna become a playoff team because you're too far behind, but if you can get that Lotto pick in the 10-14 range then it was worth it hands down.  You have a very young viable starting lineup now and with the Bulls and Spurs pick you will have a very good team next season as well.

Can't agree more. In terms of value I still think you're giving up talent but you seem to have fully confidence in your system, and more important, you fully understand your system and seem to have the players to put it to work.
Let's see if this Suns can start winning some games after that big move.

Seems to be a preference deal really. What works for one, doesn't work for the other.

Not a deal I would personally make but if it fits what you want to do, there's no reason not to make it and cash in early.

Yeah, this is honestly similar to the rh0xxy trades in the league's first season. Most people were slamming him for it back then, but I was just sitting back and laughing, saying to myself, "You guys have no idea the hell that is about to be unleashed on this league."

Obviously this trade isn't on that level - I'll be fine if we play .500 ball the rest of the year and get to the 30 win mark, but it's a huge step forward in our progression, frankly much bigger than we'd make with the players that are in this draft class IMO.

It's a matter of putting a team on your own preference, besides you can't guarantee anything so it's better to risk it than doing nothing at all.

If it's an unknown GM, then you would wonder but it's Jestor and he knows what he's doing lol