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Shooting Ratings Need Adjusting For Rookie Classes (FGD/FGI/FGJ)

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Post by Jestor (LAL) Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:16 am

Looking over the combine results, I'm aghast at how terrible everyone is shooting.

FGD should be in the 80s for pretty much everyone.
FGI is such a trainwreck I don't even know where to begin. When the highest possible number is 46 and that's one player, you're talking epically bad shooting from the entire fucking class. 46 is average for guards, and mediocre for big men.
FGJ is bad too. It's a little better in that you have 2 or 3 guys who have reasonable jumper ratings, but again, awful. Just awful.

FT ratings look perfectly fine, and FG3 looks pretty good. Perhaps if anything they run a little *too* high, but it's nothing anything to quibble over.
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Post by orangeparka (MIA) Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:32 am

What? I've never seen an FGD as high as 80 lol. That's crazy. IIRC most are around like 50-70.

FGI is usually in the 40s, with FGJ and FG3 in the 30s to low 40s.

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Post by WillyJakkz (ORL) Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:34 am

I don't own the game and though I'm of the opinion the 2013 Class Player IQ's as a whole was far too high (Mitch McGary 91 LeBron James 90 still kills me everytime I see it) I think they did an overall really good job on the rookie class so I trust their judgment on the 2014 Class.

Besides who of those guys are really good/ elite shooters?
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Post by Jestor (LAL) Wed Feb 26, 2014 6:38 am

FGD should be 70s-80s. 50s is way too low.
FGI should be 40s-50s, with maybe even the occasional 60 once every few draft classes.
FGJ should be mid-30s to mid-40s
FG3 should be anywhere from 0 to mid-late 30s, with early 40s reserved for elite 3 point shooters on the level of the 60 FGI guy.

Honestly, off the combine shooting ratings, there's hardly anybody I would draft.
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Post by orangeparka (MIA) Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:15 am

Jestor wrote:FGD should be 70s-80s.  50s is way too low.
FGI should be 40s-50s, with maybe even the occasional 60 once every few draft classes.
FGJ should be mid-30s to mid-40s
FG3 should be anywhere from 0 to mid-late 30s, with early 40s reserved for elite 3 point shooters on the level of the 60 FGI guy.

Honestly, off the combine shooting ratings, there's hardly anybody I would draft.  

That seems super high ranges from what I've seen for fgd and fgi.

Also remember that the values aren't all right, and most will improve.

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Post by Myles (SAS) Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:17 am

There was a big change in how shooting ratings worked between DDSPB2 and DDSPB3. If this was still PB2, I'd completely agree with you. However, I did a LOT of research with PB3 shooting ratings, and these numbers hold true. I mean, look at the rookies from last year:

McGary shot 47.5% on the year and 55% in Utah
Smart shot 45.8% for the season
McLemore shot 45.7%
Nerlens Noel 57.4%
Giannis Antetokounmpo 45.3%
Ricky Ledo (who was supposed to be raw) 42.3%
Kyle Anderson (who's main weakness was shooting) 40.1%
Otto Porter 43.5%

Last year's rookie class had the same shooting ratings as this year's (more or less) and it's all based on the same set of ratings that I took from PB3. There shouldn't be an issue and so far in the (admittedly small but consistent) sample size we have, the rookies have been shooting just fine.
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Post by Jestor (LAL) Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:21 am

orangeparka (MIA) wrote:
Jestor wrote:FGD should be 70s-80s.  50s is way too low.
FGI should be 40s-50s, with maybe even the occasional 60 once every few draft classes.
FGJ should be mid-30s to mid-40s
FG3 should be anywhere from 0 to mid-late 30s, with early 40s reserved for elite 3 point shooters on the level of the 60 FGI guy.

Honestly, off the combine shooting ratings, there's hardly anybody I would draft.  

That seems super high ranges from what I've seen for fgd and fgi.

Also remember that the values aren't all right, and most will improve.

Even if they're not all right, when you have a total of one guy with a max of 46 FGI current that points to the whole class being completely worthless for big men.

I've never seen FGD be lower than 60s TBH, because it's a dunk. You're honestly going to tell me players miss 50% of their dunk attempts? Not to mention, they don't happen that often in the game, so 70s-80s is what I've consistently seen across draft classes.

FGI should be in the 40s for guards and 40s-low 50s for big men
FGJ should be mid 30s-low 40s for bigs and low-mid 40s for guards

The problem with DDS3 is that it seems to want to prioritize and give boosts to 3 point shooting, and even if everyone's at the low ranges, we're seeing a lot more of it in this class.

Frankly, the way it's structured right now, every team should be running 5 out and completely forget about any inside game at all within a few years.
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Post by Jestor (LAL) Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:23 am

Myles (SAS) wrote:There was a big change in how shooting ratings worked between DDSPB2 and DDSPB3. If this was still PB2, I'd completely agree with you. However, I did a LOT of research with PB3 shooting ratings, and these numbers hold true. I mean, look at the rookies from last year:

McGary shot 47.5% on the year and 55% in Utah
Smart shot 45.8% for the season
McLemore shot 45.7%
Nerlens Noel 57.4%
Giannis Antetokounmpo 45.3%
Ricky Ledo (who was supposed to be raw) 42.3%
Kyle Anderson (who's main weakness was shooting) 40.1%
Otto Porter 43.5%

Last year's rookie class had the same shooting ratings as this year's (more or less) and it's all based on the same set of ratings that I took from PB3. There shouldn't be an issue and so far in the (admittedly small but consistent) sample size we have, the rookies have been shooting just fine.

But McGary also shot 41% in Atlanta, and the difference between the two is so striking it creates doubt as to which to trust. To be honest, the reason I didn't draft McGary was because I saw that low 40s FGI and was like nope nope nope.
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Post by Myles (SAS) Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:26 am

Which is exactly why I brought him up, I know you refused to draft him for that.

He shot 54.5% on FGI for the year.
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Post by Myles (SAS) Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:27 am

Like I said, I based my rookie classes off of ratings the game had. I used players that were already established in the file as ways of molding my rookies, so I was always working off of a base as opposed to trying to create an entirely new player if that makes sense.
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Post by Jestor (LAL) Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:32 am

I understand. It sounds like it was a completely unnecessary complication that changed the formula then, as it worked beautifully in 1 and 2.
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Post by Myles (SAS) Wed Feb 26, 2014 7:39 am

Jestor wrote:I understand.  It sounds like it was a completely unnecessary complication that changed the formula then, as it worked beautifully in 1 and 2.

Yeah I think Gary changed it due to the new drive/jumper slider, he adjusted how shooting ratings work as well. I don't know, all I know is that the difference between PB3 and PB2 is big enough that I made sure to adjust the rookie classes for it.
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Post by Rizzo (NY) Wed Feb 26, 2014 9:23 am

I don't know much about the ratings from the database at all and will trust the judgement of the "experts". Very interesting discussion to see these ratings talked about and trying to learn more about them, though.
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