2014 Draft Lottery in Review

2014 Draft Lottery in Review - A Look Back at Last Year's Lottery Picks



1. Orlando Magic - Andrew Wiggins
28.5mpg | 20.5ppg (44.9% / 28.8%) | 1.2apg | 4.4rpg | 1.3spg | 1.5bpg | 2.0tpg | 3.1fpg

The consensus #1 pick this past draft, Wiggins has gone on to showcase his innate offensive skillset for the 11-33 Magic.  With few other scoring options on a young, but talented roster, Wiggins has taken it upon himself to average north of 20 points per contest.  Impressive stuff for a rookie.  We would expect Wiggins to post better rebounding numbers, and his assist total will never be anything to write home about.  It looks also as if Wiggins may be susceptible to zone schemes throughout his career, as he’s failing to hit the long shot at even 30%.  We will say, however, you also have to like his low turnover rate.

2. Boston Celtics - Alex Len
27.9mpg | 8.2ppg (42.0%) | 0.9apg | 7.6rpg | 0.2spg | 1.4bpg | 1.2tpg | 1.9fpg

The consensus #2 pick this past draft, it’s probably true that young big men take longer to develop and to adjust to the speed of the CSL game.  Still, Len is already a 10.5/10/1.8 center, Per36.  As his offensive efficiency increases, so too will his scoring prowess.  Also, Len does a great job staying honest on his defensive assignments, tallying only 1.9 fouls per game – a number sure to get better as his awareness grows.  It’s not as sexy as having Wiggins drop 20 per night for you, but solid big men seem to be getting harder and harder to find.

3. Phoenix Suns - Anthony Bennett
26.6mpg | 8.7ppg (35.6% / 29.1%) | 1.3apg | 5.0rpg | 0.6spg | 0.4bpg | 1.1tpg | 1.5fpg

It’s not hard to see why Bennett has fallen out of favor with Jestor.  Although we’re less than a season into Bennett’s career, he already plays the role of frustrating tweener with fervor.  His efficiency has been horrid and he’s not really doing anything else to outweigh his offensive woes, creating questions regarding his ability to deserve playing time.

4. Milwaukee Bucks - Andrew Harrison
28.9mpg | 11.7ppg (43.1% / 34.9%) | 3.2apg | 3.6rpg | 1.2spg | 0.9bpg | 2.2tpg | 2.4fpg

As should be apparent, Harrison’s physical tools have been invaluable to his rookie run.  He is generating north of 2.6 takeaways Per36 and is already shooting north of 43% on decent volume.  It’s always important to remember (in Bennett’s case too) that shooting percentages for players on sub .500 teams are often the result of poor team-wide shooting performance – indeed, it’s difficult to get good shots off when your team is constantly on the wrong side of the shot differential.  For a point guard taken so high, you would like to see some more progression in DI and IQ, but Riot has to be happy with his 4th overall selection.

5. Memphis Grizzlies - Julius Randle
27.2mpg | 10.2ppg (41.4% / 41.2%) | 0.9apg | 5.7rpg | 0.7spg | 0.9bpg | 1.9tpg | 2.7fpg

Perhaps the most surprising thing so far for Randle has been his 40%+ three point shooting on a decent amount of shots over a reasonable sample size so far.  He only takes a trey roughly every other game, but is hitting them at a good clip.  Additionally, on roughly 9 shots per game, Randle is getting to line almost 4 times.  He’s showing glimpses of the offensive game people raved about in college.  Let’s see if Memphis can’t give this kid some front court help this offseason.

6. Boston Celtics (via DAL) - Jahii Carson - Traded to SAC (soon to be traded back to BOS)
22.0mpg | 8.2ppg (43.2% / 41.1%) | 4.3apg | 2.2rpg | 0.5spg | 0.0bpg | 2.5tpg | 2.5fpg

I’m a little surprised Carson hasn’t gotten more burn.  He’s raw still and inefficient as a result, but he’s proven to be one of the better scorer/shooters out of this rookie class.  Per36, Carson looks like a 13.4/7.0 point guard – good for best in class, so far.  It’s even more impressive when you consider he was trying to pass to prior to the renaissance occurring in Sacramento.  It looks as if Dennis may reap the benefits of Carsons’ underutilization, but only time will tell.

7. Sacramento Kings (via LAL) - Shabazz Muhammad - Traded to BOS
29.6mpg | 14.7ppg (38.7% / 36.7%) | 1.3apg | 3.6rpg | 0.3spg | 0.0bpg | 1.9tpg | 1.8fpg

He is who we thought he was!  Interestingly, he’s not terribly different from Wiggins, statistically.  His jumper is worse, but his trey is better.  Muhammad is almost identical in every other way except for steals and blocks, he even fouls less – not bad for a player with such low IQ and Discipline.

8. Minnesota Timberwolves - Willie Cauley
19.6mpg | 4.4ppg (53.2%) | 0.3apg | 4.8rpg | 0.3spg | 1.4bpg | 0.7tpg | 1.4fpg

I know Jake wasn’t thrilled with Cauley out of the gate, but I have to tell you, I like this kid a lot (I even considered trying to trade for him before posting this article).  In less than 20 minutes of action, Cauley has posted some nice numbers – 8/8.6/2.5 Per36 – and he conducted his offensive game as efficiently as you could ever hope a rookie center could, shooting over 53% on his attempts.  So far, Cauley is outperforming his superior Len from both an efficiency and blocks generated perspective.

9. Sacramento Kings - Gary Harris - Traded to NOP
24.6mpg | 6.1ppg (44.6% / 44.6%) | 3.3apg | 2.3rpg | 1.0spg | 0.3bpg | 2.0tpg | 1.5fpg

Harris started the season very poorly.  We lost track of him for a while and, though it appears his scoring hasn’t dramatically improved, his shooting clearly has.  Obviously, he’s not being called on to score with both Smart and Davis on board.  He rates out well as a ball thief, though we haven’t really seen that from him so far.  It is nice to see some distribution from him in limited minutes, but what will happen to his development once Waiters comes back from injury?

10. Phoenix Suns - Kendall Williams
23.1mpg | 6.6ppg (36.8% / 40.3%) | 3.4apg | 2.9rpg | 0.4spg | 0.4bpg | 2.4tpg | 1.7fpg

Williams is a nice all-around prospect.  He definitely needs to work on his mid-range game, but he already has CSL-ready passing, defense and displays solid decision making in Jestor’s system.  Probably gets my vote for best value pick, at this stage of the 2014 draft.  I really don’t like guards who can’t play at least average defense, so Williams certainly rates out well for me.

11. Washington Wizards - Perry Ellis - Traded to DET
15.4mpg | 7.2ppg (54%) | 0.5apg | 3.6rpg | 0.6spg | 0.5bpg | 0.6tpg | 1.4fpg

Ellis has made a strong campaign for more minutes.  His defense leaves something to be desired, but he is already shooting an absolutely blistering 54% from the field his rookie season.  One would imagine that could only get better.  Per36, Ellis is averaging 17.2/8.6 and over a steal and a block. Wow.

12. New Orleans Pelicans - Dario Saric - Traded to SAC
24.7mpg | 9.7ppg (42.1% / 26.3%) | 1.2apg | 4.7rpg | 0.8spg | 0.7bpg | 1.4tpg | 2.0fpg

You may not realize it, but Saric is quietly having one of the better rookie seasons thus far.  He needs to never shoot threes, but beyond that checks quite a few boxes. Tallying north of 14.1/6.8 Per36 with over a steal and block, Saric has managed nice stats on one of the worst teams in the league.  Dylan looks like he’s more interested in veteran talent at this point, you might try and hit him up for a young 6’10” small forward.

13. San Antonio Spurs - Vasilije Micic - Traded to BOS
27.8mpg | 6.3ppg (34.6% / 39.0%) | 5.4apg | 3.0rpg | 0.1spg | 0.0bpg | 2.8tpg | 2.0fpg

Micic is logging more minutes than all but four of the players listed here before him.  He’s clearly not a good shooter, and may never be, but fortunately he’s not really out there looking for his shot.  Although Carson has Micic beat out slightly, 6.9 assists Per36 is a really nice number from a youngster.

14. Miami Heat - Alec Brown - Traded to CHI

Last and certainly, amongst this list, least – Brown has logged a grand total of 13 minutes this season for the Bulls.  So, yeah, I’m not going to write anything here other than snarky comments.  Wasn’t Brown the main piece of the Gobert trade?  Speaking of Gobert – what a waste of solid young 7-2 talent.

Great stuff man. We are definitely anxious for ratings boosts for Harrison, as he had none the first time around.

Shabazz and Saric have both really played well for where they were selected. Steal city.

Nice article, at first I thought it is already your next draft article, lol.

Pretty scary there are so many guys that have been, still are, or will be Celtics..
Its good to own Carson, Bazz, Len. Though Ive to admit Carson and Bazz will be used in future trades as I dont see them fit to our system. Nevertheless they will be damn good..

Instead of trading for WCS you now are getting in another young Center? No names here

Nice article.

Cauley had a decent stat boost the first time around (considering a lot of lotto picks had no improvement) so thats one good thing I guess. I really like his shot blocking, but he'll never be able to score much.

As for Alec Brown.... Why?

Awesome, love reading up about past draft classes and how they're doing now. Nicely done man.

I'm a little annoyed that AB15 is doing so poorly since he graded out as a great shooter in scouting last year. Makes me think the scouting we do all season long is pretty much BS until we get to the workouts and see the actual numbers.

This is panning out as one of the worst draft classes I've ever seen in a sim league, and only Andrew Wiggins is really saving its bacon. I'm getting that same sense of awfulness from this year's crop, too.

Yeah, like Jestor said, the 2014 draft class is pretty awful. There's not a single difference maker that has been drafted outside of the lottery, maybe Rasheed Sulaimon, but that's it. Even some of the lottery players are pretty weak.

Great review of this past year's lottery. As far as Gary Harris, I'm pleased with what he's brought to the table thus far this season but I, too, have no idea what will happen to his playing time once Dion Waiters returns.

Yeah, was a pretty poor class overall by the looks of it. Compared to some guys in previous years that were taken in the 20's, they would be top 5-8 just about in this class.

Jestor (PHX) wrote:I'm a little annoyed that AB15 is doing so poorly since he graded out as a great shooter in scouting last year.  Makes me think the scouting we do all season long is pretty much BS until we get to the workouts and see the actual numbers.

This is panning out as one of the worst draft classes I've ever seen in a sim league, and only Andrew Wiggins is really saving its bacon.  I'm getting that same sense of awfulness from this year's crop, too.

Not 100% sure for this class. It looks like they are all unbelievable raw.
Still didnt lose faith.

Really great read. Glad you posted this.

Certainly interesting to see almost all rookies underachieving. Wiggins is obviously far and away the best player in this class and is well on his way to superstardom.

Like seeing Saric having one of the better rookie years. When he was starting he was putting rock solid numbers, but obviously less burn has led to less production. Plus, with Deng and Amir Johnson recently coming to town, his minutes will go down even more. While we really love his game, it might be best to test the market for the rook.